Now that the California Supreme Court has decided that Proposition 8 is valid, the focus has shifted to the eventual political battle for its repeal. (Two initiative petitions for its repeal have already begun circulating.) The old saying that knowledge is power is still true. If you want to know whose minds need to be changed, the place to start is the county-by county results for Prop. 8 last November.
Here’s the California Secretary of State’s map showing the county-by-county results:
and here’s a link to the Secretary of State’s “flash-propelled” map:
If you mouse over a county, the county’s vote totals will show up. While some rural counties (like Tulare) had upwards of 75% YES, the counties that gave the big numerical pluralities to YES were San Bernardino and Riverside Counties, which gave almost a 200,000 vote plurality each (voting Yes by a two-to-one margin). Fresno, San Diego, and Kern Counties each contributed about another 100,000 plurality to the Yes vote. Together, these five counties account for the entire YES on 8 victory margin, and then some. (A lot of other smaller counties also voted Yes, but they were balanced by the large counties — like San Francisco, Alameda, and San Mateo, that favored a No vote.) Of course, Los Angeles county is so huge that a major shift there could override almost anything else. As it turns out, it split almost right down the middle, with a very slight plurality for Yes. A 5% shift in LA County’s vote would amount to 150,000 votes one way or the other. Of course each of these counties might need a different strategy to win over those who voted for Prop. 8. It’d be worth looking at the breakdown of the Prop. 8 results by ethnicity and religion to understand better whose minds need to be changed.